Wednesday, September 21, 2011

CNBC: Gold Likely to Retest $1,920: Charts

By: Daryl Guppy
CNBC Contributor

 
Gold or silver, which is the most compelling? Both are used as an alternative to fiat currencies and in this area attention has shifted from the U.S. dollar to the Euro. It is the increasing strength in the U.S. dollar that is driving down the price of gold and silver. Assessment of the precious metals also swings on assessment of the U.S. Dollar index.
Click on graph to enlarge

Our main focus is on gold, but this cannot be easily separated from the influence of related markets. The Dollar Index [.DXY  77.25    0.22  (+0.29%)   ] developed a symmetrical triangle. The breakout on the upside has an initial target near $0.785, just below the substantial resistance level near $0.795.
This reduces the probability of the U.S. dollar quickly moving above resistance and resuming a march to the next resistance level near $0.815. This suggests the strength of the dollar may be temporary and this has an impact on the raw chart analysis of the gold price.
There are two features of the gold [GCCV1  1799.40    -9.70  (-0.54%)   ]price trend. First is the role of the long-term trend line. For much of 2010 this uptrend line acted as a support level. The price retreated to this level and then rebounded. In early 2011 the priced dropped below the line and the line acted as a resistance level. Read More

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